Wpływ zdarzeń typu „czarny łabędź” na napływ migrantów: doświadczenia Polski w czasie pandemii COVID-19

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Muhammad Fadillah


Słowa kluczowe : COVID-19, czarny łabędź, migracje międzynarodowe, Polska, zdarzenia rzadkie, polityka migracyjna, przełamanie strukturalne
Abstrakt
Celem artykułu jest rozpoznanie, czy pandemia COVID-19 funkcjonowała jako zdarzenie typu „czarny łabędź”, fundamentalnie zmieniające międzynarodowe przepływy migracyjne do Polski. Wykorzystując kompleksowe dane dotyczące wniosków o pobyt z 229 krajów i jednostek terytorialnych złożonych w latach 2010–2024, przeprowadzono opisową analizę rok do roku w celu zidentyfikowania strukturalnych zmian we wzorcach migracyjnych. Wyniki pokazują, że początek pandemii odpowiadał najniższemu wzrostowi migracji w szeregu czasowym, po którym nastąpiło bezprecedensowe zwiększenie napływu migrantów, znacznie przekraczające trendy sprzed pandemii. Uzyskane wyniki dowodzą, że COVID-19 nie tylko zakłócił, ale także zrestrukturyzował dynamikę migracji, co podkreśla rolę pandemii jako rzadkiego zdarzenia o dużym wpływie i długotrwałych konsekwencjach. Dzięki zastosowaniu modelu „czarnego łabędzia” do migracji ludności niniejsze badanie dostarcza nowatorskiej perspektywy teoretycznej pomagającej zrozumieć, jak globalne wstrząsy mogą przekształcać systemy mobilności. Zaobserwowane zjawisko ma istotne implikacje dla planowania i prognozowania polityki migracyjnej, sugerując, że tworzone modele muszą uwzględniać rzadkie zakłócenia o dużym wpływie, a nie polegać wyłącznie na ekstrapolacji trendów historycznych.

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Jak cytować
Fadillah, M. (2025). Wpływ zdarzeń typu „czarny łabędź” na napływ migrantów: doświadczenia Polski w czasie pandemii COVID-19. Ekonomika I Organizacja Logistyki, 10(1), 23–37. https://doi.org/10.22630/EIOL.2025.10.1.2
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